Diesel price has increased about $0.30/gallon since Jan 1

[Wayne]

There was a pretty steep increase in diesel prices here over the last two weeks. Tightening crude supply and higher demand. Forecasts predict that this summer we will see retail diesel around $4.25/gallon. We plan on taking a couple long trips this year and it disappointing to see fuel go up so much. I guess it is what it is.

 

[ctechbob]

I paid $4/gal for 93 at the start of last weekends trip. Definitely hurts the wallet, but I just can't bring myself to tow on 87 or even 89. Especially come summertime when temps are way up.

When I started working on the budget for what should be our 2025 trip to South Dakota I budgeted at $6.25/gal.

 

[MSCH]

diesel jumped about 25 cents around my house the last week.. last Friday it was 399 and today it is 427 .
at every station I looked at.
FWIW there is no collusion on pricing.. yet they are all the same price?
how the heck does that work?

what's interesting is the price per barrel hasn't changed much, price has been in the 70+ dollar range for a long time.

you check WTI price for any time period right here. WTI has been in the 70's for a long time

WTI Crude Oil Futures Contracts | Oilprice.com

The next 10 years of futures contracts for WTI Crude Oil, along with the latest WTI Crude Oil news and articles.

oilprice.com

 

[MSCH]

I paid $4/gal for 93 at the start of last weekends trip. Definitely hurts the wallet, but I just can't bring myself to tow on 87 or even 89. Especially come summertime when temps are way up.

When I started working on the budget for what should be our 2025 trip to South Dakota I budgeted at $6.25/gal.

I guestimate by the price per mile.
just round it out. say diesel is 4 bucks and I get 10 mpg, its 40 cents per mile.. 50 dollars a gallon, 5 cents per mile.

its one of those law of big numbers things that seems to be fairly accurate guestimate when it is all said and done.

 

[Wayne]

what's interesting is the price per barrel hasn't changed much, price has been in the 70+ dollar range for a long time.

you check WTI price for any time period right here. WTI has been in the 70's for a long time

There is speculation about tight diesel supplies in the future, our prices now are highly correlated to what the market thinks the price will be in the future.

 

[Wayne]

When I started working on the budget for what should be our 2025 trip to South Dakota I budgeted at $6.25/gal.

That's a lot!

July futures don't support gasoline being that expensive. There is less demand for gas now than there has been for a long time. I don't see retail gas being over $4 even in the summertime driving season.

 

[MSCH]

There is speculation about tight diesel supplies in the future, our prices now are highly correlated to what the market thinks the price will be in the future.

Wayne, if I had a crystal ball I would own the street named Wall.

I have no idea what direction the price of fuel is going to go
but I do know I am going to buy the stuff if I need it, no matter what it costs if I want to go.

 

[ctechbob]

That's a lot!

July futures don't support gasoline being that expensive. There is less demand for gas now than there has been for a long time. I don't see retail gas being over $4 even in the summertime driving season.

View attachment 2294

It is, but being 2025 planning, who knows what would be going on, I'd rather come back from the trip having spent less than I thought I would. Works with my brain better.

 

[ctechbob]

I guestimate by the price per mile.
just round it out. say diesel is 4 bucks and I get 10 mpg, its 40 cents per mile.. 50 dollars a gallon, 5 cents per mile.

its one of those law of big numbers things that seems to be fairly accurate guestimate when it is all said and done.

Oddly, I didn't put the formula I used in my spreadsheet. I think I picked either 9.5 or 10mpg to base my calculations on. Basically doing the same thing as you in the long run.

 

[GON]

I can't help but try understand the change in the buying power of the USD plays into the retail price of fuel. If one used BITCOIN as the source to purchase retail diesel, the retail price of the diesel would be down $1.07 USD per gallon since 1 JAN 2024.

 

[MSCH]

speaking of oil prices being subject to speculation,
one forum member's financial opinion is that if you bought
oil with imaginary money the price would be down a dollar since the beginning of the year.

in the last year I have paid anything between $3.15 a gallon and $5.25 a gallon for diesel.
there is the imaginary dollar and I'll raise you another imaginary dollar.

 

[MSCH]

Oddly, I didn't put the formula I used in my spreadsheet. I think I picked either 9.5 or 10mpg to base my calculations on. Basically doing the same thing as you in the long run.

only thing is you way overestimate fuel price at $6 25 a gallon or was that a misprint?
I try to be realistic.. not pessimistic or optimistic.

 

[GON]

speaking of oil prices being subject to speculation,
one forum member's financial opinion is that if you bought
oil with imaginary money the price would be down a dollar since the beginning of the year.

in the last year I have paid anything between $3.15 a gallon and $5.25 a gallon for diesel.
there is the imaginary dollar and I'll raise you another imaginary dollar.

Are you implying the USD is imaginary money? Some inflation statistics suggests it may be.

I am no fan of crypto, have never ever had a spec of interest. But if I understand properly, the quantity of Bitcoin is static. The quantity of the USD is not.

The Bitcoin example is a method, maybe highly flawed, that can provide a supplemental method of seeing what may be a root cause of retail diesel price changes.

One only needs use the Argentina peso to buy diesel in the US to show the impact currency can have on a retail fuel pricing chart.

 

[ctechbob]

only thing is you way overestimate fuel price at $6 25 a gallon or was that a misprint?
I try to be realistic.. not pessimistic or optimistic.

My brain doesn't work that way. I have to be a pessimist when it comes to budgets. Always have.

$6.25 a gallon for premium isn't out of reach given the right world cluster that might be going on in the future.

 

[MSCH]

My brain doesn't work that way. I have to be a pessimist when it comes to budgets. Always have.

$6.25 a gallon for premium isn't out of reach given the right world cluster that might be going on in the future.

honestly, it sounds like a worst case scenario "budget".

do you actually need premium gasoline? hardly anything on the road requires it..

 

[ctechbob]

honestly, it sounds like a worst case scenario "budget".

do you actually need premium gasoline? hardly anything on the road requires it..

It isn't required to tow, but it is recommended. I'm willing to spend a little extra for peace of mind when I'm pulling a hill with a tiny gas motor running 20psi in the summer. It does give a something like a 10-15hp boost as well from what I've seen of dyno comparisons.

As for the budget, it is just one of those things that a combination of growing up poor and ASD has done to my brain over the years.

 

[MSCH]

Are you implying the USD is imaginary money? Some inflation statistics suggests it may be.

I am no fan of crypto, have never ever had a spec of interest. But if I understand properly, the quantity of Bitcoin is static. The quantity of the USD is not.

The Bitcoin example is a method, maybe highly flawed, that can provide a supplemental method of seeing what may be a root cause of retail diesel price changes.

One only needs use the Argentina peso to buy diesel in the US to show the impact currency can have on a retail fuel pricing chart.

I was implying Bitcoin and its brethren are truly imaginary, they are also manufactured, so there is nothing to prevent them from being replicated. I have no idea how that stuff actually has any value as it is not regulated in any manner except by market forces
but over the year people have managed to sell Pet Rocks and or Stars in the constellation such, so who is to truly say what bitcoin is worth.

You did hit on something, all the other FIAT currency isn't based on anything else other than faith and acceptance of the faith.

most of us use USD. I think its best just to stick with that for comparison sake and not think about currency fluctuation, exchange rates and commodity pricing in general or you will wear yourself out.

 

[MSCH]

It isn't required to tow, but it is recommended. I'm willing to spend a little extra for peace of mind when I'm pulling a hill with a tiny gas motor running 20psi in the summer. It does give a something like a 10-15hp boost as well from what I've seen of dyno comparisons.

As for the budget, it is just one of those things that a combination of growing up poor and ASD has done to my brain over the years.

I'll bite, what is ASD. ?

 

[Wayne]

I was implying Bitcoin and its brethren are truly imaginary, they are also manufactured, so there is nothing to prevent them from being replicated.

If someone replicated Bitcoin or other cryptos, the coin would never be added to the blockchain, because it's cryptographic hash would not match any hash that had been agreed on by the consensus protocol.

I have no idea how that stuff actually has any value as it is not regulated in any manner except by market forces
but over the year people have managed to sell Pet Rocks and or Stars in the constellation such, so who is to truly say what bitcoin is worth.

The market is agreeing that Bitcoin and some other cryptos have value. Bitcoin is worth about a trillion dollars right now. I'm not saying I believe Bitcoin will have long term value, because the Bitcoin protocol is a joke. Two to three transactions/second is all the more it can do with its proof of work design. No currency could ever be taken seriously that can only transact 3 transactions/second. The proof of work algorithm wastes a huge amount of energy.

There is a crypto (Cardano) that has been designed from the ground up to be useful, have a high transaction rate, and uses like 1% of the energy that Bitcoin uses. It's only worth about $0.60 right now, because people aren't speculating on it. Why? Because the only goal of the design team is for it to be useful, not a speculative coin. That will give you some insight to how much Bitcoin may actually be worth.

In the future, a digital currency will absolutely be used, but it's not likely to be any of the crypto coins out there now.

 

[MSCH]

In the future, a digital currency will absolutely be used, but it's not likely to be any of the crypto coins out there now.

that is coming... but it will be something done by central banks... when you think about it for the most part we already use digital currency as the highest percentage of transactions are already electronic.. thru the AHC..

what someone is willing to pay for something like a bitcoin has little to do with its intrinsic value... and more to do with its money laundering capabilities.